3 Most Overvalued Stocks of 2023 The Motley Fool

But when you follow it as part of a well-run portfolio of quality, blue-chip stocks, you can get some good results. It also can force you to behave in a routine way, making regular buys into the market whether it’s up or down. Then, there is the Shiller PE chart again implying that US stocks are extremely overvalued. It’s also logical to assume, if all goes well with both these preliminary exercises, that the military will begin ordering additional earth observation satellites from SpaceX, and perhaps some of these hosted payload services as well.

I believe this chart is extremely misleading because it compares US stock market valuation to US GDP. In reality, S&P 500 companies (which comprise most of the US stock market capitalization) derive 30% to 50% of sales outside of the US. So, if you want to consider this ratio, you need to compare fbs broker review US stock market capitalization to global GDP, not US GDP. Two of the most common are the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) and the enterprise value to EBITDA ratio (EV/EBITDA). Both are measurements of the current stock price versus the underlying company’s earnings or earnings potential.

Related Stocks

We do not manage client funds or hold custody of assets, we help users connect with relevant financial advisors. There may be cases when a stock could be valued other than the way it appears at first glance, but for most people this rule will help protect against tokenexus crypto exchange losses. For instance, if you have a lot of knowledge of a certain industry, you might spot a turning point in a firm that’s closely tied to economic cycles. Then you might decide that the earnings might turn out to be stronger than they are being forecast.

And if the stock’s price declines after you sell, you buy it back at the new lower price and return the shares to the lender. Where you make money is in the gap between the buy price and the sell price. Perhaps you think that a stock is undervalued by 5%, and after it gets back to what you think is a fair price, you don’t think the company has much potential to grow. Overall, in many investment decisions, numerous factors might be at play, such as your risk tolerance, investment horizon, and investment beliefs.

  • Four figures can produce some great returns if invested in the right places.
  • One popular way to analyze the earnings potential for a stock is using P/E ratios.
  • Overvalued stocks are ideal for investors looking to short a position.

“P” represents the price, or the amount for which the stock is currently selling. “E” represents the per-share earnings, or how many dollars an investor can expect to earn on each share of stock in the company. This is calculated using the earnings per share from the last four quarters that the stock has been traded. An undervalued stock is believed to review the research driven investor be priced too low based on current indicators, such as those used in a valuation model. Should a particular company’s stock be valued well below the industry average, it may be considered undervalued. In these circumstances, value investors may focus on acquiring these investments as a method of pulling in reasonable returns for a lower initial cost.

At the same time, some on Wall Street have started to back off of their recession calls as the US economy has showed repeated signs of strength — the most recent being the 336,000 jobs added in September. For example, Bank of America and JPMorgan strategists both walked back their 2023 recession calls earlier this year. Kantrowitz himself, despite his recession call, adjusted his 2023 S&P price target upward from 3,400 to its current range. Looking back to prior recessions, stocks have suffered, on average, bigger declines than a 16% drawdown. According to RBC, the average S&P 500 decline during the last 13 recessions has been 32%.

What it means for investors

Space Force has awarded SpaceX its first Starshield contract, which could be worth anywhere from $15 million to $70 million over the course of a year. These examples are programmatically compiled from various online sources to illustrate current usage of the word ‘overvalue.’ Any opinions expressed in the examples do not represent those of Merriam-Webster or its editors. The opposite of overbought is oversold, where a security is thought to be trading below its intrinsic value.

But looking at the revised data, a clearer trend starts in September of 2007, he said. When new employment data comes out, investors in large part tend to take it at face value. But revisions to this data are often just as important as the initial releases, as they can dramatically reshape the narrative around the health of the US economy, for better or for worse. New or inexperienced investors would struggle to curate, research, and compute conclusive data, which would allow them to make an informed decision. Investing in undervalued stock could essentially be considered a way to try to get a good deal. Whether a stock is actually undervalued or not is open to interpretation.

Certain markers can suggest that a stock is overvalued right away, but it’s always helpful to look under the hood further to get a sense of what’s driving a company’s value and where it might be trending before making an investment. Other factors and trends can help you spot an overvalued stock as well. For example, look at the current demand for the stock and what’s driving it.

As famous value stock investor Benjamin Graham said, in the long run, the stock market is a weighing machine. Some traders use pricing channels like Bollinger Bands to spot overbought areas. On a chart, Bollinger Bands are positioned at a multiple of a stock’s standard deviation above and below an exponential moving average. “If you look at claims back in 2007 and 2008 you’ll see a VERY different story from today’s revised data compared to what investors knew AT THE TIME,” Kantrowitz said in the October 4 note, the emphasis his. Financial experts consider a PEG ratio below 2 to be the threshold; above this, such stock is considered overvalued.


The trailing P/E is based on historical results, while forward P/E is based on forecasted estimates. For investors in the equity markets, determining a stock’s intrinsic value is important in trying to determine whether it is overvalued or undervalued. Intrinsic value is the calculated value of a company using fundamental analysis, which takes into account a variety of quantitative factors.

PEG and Dividend-Adjusted PEG Ratio

Analysts currently expect earnings growth of less than 2% per year, while they expect Hanesbrands to increase its bottom line 15% annually over the next five years. A small group of market theorists believes that the market is perfectly efficient, by nature. They opine that fundamental analysis of a stock is a pointless exercise because the stock market is all-knowing. Contrarily, fundamental analysts are staunch in their belief that there are always opportunities to ferret out undervalued and overvalued stocks because the market is as irrational as its participants.

Fundamentally Overbought

Smucker (SJM 1.6%) and Conagra Brands (CAG 3.53%), trade for forward PEs of 16.5 and 14.3, respectively. According to The Motley Fool, in January 2020, the company’s stock was the second most expensive among its industry peers and Eli Lilly might find it hard to deliver consistent expected growth. With $3 billion in civilian revenue annually already, and now tens of millions of dollars beginning to pour in from the military (and more on the way), it appears that Starlink is approaching that point.

What is an Overvalued Stock?

Many types of useful signals may show that a stock deserves a closer look. It’s helpful to start with a review of the annual report, 10-K filing, balance sheet, income statement, and other statements. These will give you a feel for the way the firm works, before you dig deeper into the numbers. The challenge for Gildan is that it doesn’t have the brand strength and loyal customer base of its bigger competitors Hanesbrands (HBI 2.06%) or Fruit of the Loom. That’s reflected in its gross margin, which is consistently lower than Hanes. Meanwhile, its revenue growth is typically in line with the competition.

Usually, an entire sector becoming overvalued means a bubble is preparing to burst. It is very difficult to quantify these as it pertains to equity prices. But, the market does not like uncertainty, and these factors could definitely create uncertainty. If these do not become issues, then the market can focus on earnings. Beyond the above ratio, there are charts provided by CMG Capital Management Group implying the US stock market is extremely overvalued. McCormick’s stock trades around a forward PE ratio of 31.4 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 25.6.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *